Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
