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Well. From one perspective, the nation's protracted bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the bid to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a summit obstructed from the top if his administration managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.