Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
Several figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.
