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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.

However the current race is profoundly different. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. In an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and thrilling season, he's up against five other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

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